3/31/2024 0 Comments California wildfires 2020 map![]() ![]() One-fifth of all conifer forests in the Sierra are mismatched with the warmer climate and may not survive, according to Stanford University researchers. “Things could quickly change, should the spigots from sky shut off really quickly, should we see a really warm summer, should we see an active series of dry lightning come through the state.”įor Subscribers California’s mountains are too warm for some trees to survive. “These wild cards can always come up,” said John Abatzoglou, professor of climatology at UC Merced. ![]() In 2020, a late-summer dry lightning burst sparked scores of fires, turning a so-so season into the state’s worst on record. For instance, in 2022, conditions were dry and toasty, but the state benefited from some well-timed rainfall events that tempered fire activity. Some of the variables that can make or break a fire season are unpredictable. They can’t yet make that call this year, and cautioned that a lot could change between now and July, when peak fire season typically starts. ![]() Still, California is in a different place than it was at this point last year, when conditions were so wet that forecasters were confident the entirety of the fire season would be relatively mild. While in Southern California, Santa Ana winds don’t tend to stoke fire growth until later in the summer and fall, in Northern California, destructive fires that take place in May and June are typically related to a wind event, Wachter said. “That kind of robs the energy for getting as many of these stronger offshore wind events,” he said. The phenomenon typically results in the jet stream being divided into a subtropical and polar jet, rather than being one consolidated stream, said Brent Wachter, meteorologist with Predictive Services Northern California Operations. Part of that has to do with El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation pattern, which is a major driver of temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe. Predictive Services meteorologists are calling for a near- to below-normal number of these wind events over the next three months. Northerly and offshore winds - generally referred to as Diablo winds in the north and Santa Anas in the south - have driven some of the state’s most damaging fires. Once that material cures, which tends to happen in late April through June, it could stoke fires like the York fire - the 93,000-acre blaze that burned through the Mojave National Preserve in July and was the state’s largest fire last year. Has the state made strides against those shortcomings?Īdditionally, forecasters are closely watching the state’s desert areas, many of which saw above-normal precipitation this year and last, fueling the growth of grasses and small shrubs. The Camp fire in Paradise revealed vulnerabilities in forest management, electrical equipment, city planning and evacuations. “So potentially, more and more fire snow interactions can contribute to a stronger or more rapid change from flood risk to drought risk,” he said.Ĭlimate & Environment Has California addressed the failures that led to the deadly Camp fire five years ago? Some of these places have little tree canopy to shield the snow from the sun, and that could result in snowpack melting more quickly, he said. Still, as climate change pushes California fires to burn at higher elevations - places that were once too wet or cool to nurture flames - more snow is falling on burned areas, said Amir AghaKouchak, professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Irvine. “Years when we’ve had above-average snowpack have been correlated, especially across Northern California, with a general tendency for below-average acreage burned,” Lutz said. That ensures that vegetation dries out more slowly and also helps to moderate the onset of warmer weather, said Brett Lutz, BLM meteorologist with Predictive Services Northern California Operations. The more moisture that’s in the snowpack, the longer it typically takes to melt. Snowpack was about 94% of its average for April 1, the date when it is typically at its deepest. The statewide snowpack by Monday had swelled to 104% of normal for the date, with a snow water equivalent of 24.4 inches. California Monster blizzard shatters California ‘snow drought’ with up to 10 feet of new snow
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